Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every 5 years, with the next round due in 2025. The third generation of NDCs must address significant gaps in ambition to achieve the 1.5 °C target. This policy brief provides an analysis of the critical benchmarks and recommendations necessary for aligning NDCs with the 1.5 °C target.

The three key ambition benchmarks this policy brief focuses on are

• scaling renewable energy: Tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 are vital. Regions with low renewables bases, like sub-Saharan Africa, require accelerated growth supported by international finance.
• transitioning away from fossil fuels: No new coal, oil, or gas projects are compatible with the 1.5 °C target. Production must decline sharply but current NDCs often fail to address this, widening the "production gap."
• reforming fossil fuel subsidies: Subsidies totalled USD 1.5 trillion in 2022. Their removal could cut global emissions by up to 10% by 2030, yet most NDCs neglect this critical area.