Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA)

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) is a methodology for water resources planning and management if significant uncertainty exists about future conditions. Longstanding techniques for incorporating “known” climate and hydrologic variability as well as economic, demographic, and financial uncertainty. What has been missing is a coherent and consistent approach for dealing with anticipated but unquantified changes due to “unknown unknowns” such as climate change that impact project planning, socio-economic justification, resource management, and engineering design. Such uncertainties affect the selection of risk-reduction options by decision-makers. Consequently, a process that incorporates unknown unknowns in planning for reliable and resilient solutions over the lifespan of a project becomes critical to selecting risk- and cost-effective solutions. To address this need, CRIDA provides a collaborative process for risk-informed decision making: effectively assessing, managing, and communicating risks to stakeholders and decision-makers, including successfully avoided risks and residual risks that cannot be avoided, quantified, or isolated.